Wednesday, 27 May 2020

Refuting Coronavirus Myths 1

(N.B. Data as at 8th May 2020.)


In my last post I focused on what can result from being poorly informed, having an impoverished vocabulary and having inadequate critical thinking skills: rumours, buzz words and conspiracy theories, respectively.
 I’d like to look more deeply into conspiracy theories which we’ve all heard at some point, but seem to proliferate when people face an insuperable problem. As I’ve said such theories are held and generated by those who have little or no powers of analysis. It is imperative that we distinguish between analytical thinking and cynical thinking, where the ‘thinker’ is generally adamant that his theory is correct, will not entertain alternative perceptions on the subject and believes he is cleverly seeing through some perceived organized and threatening façade.
Rumours are certainly rife in relation to the current pandemics so much so that a Greek doctor sat down to succinctly refute three such theories, but ended up with an enormous text on numerous myths. Below is what I have selected from and translated his original text which I’m sure you will find of interest.
                                                

Myth no.1 Covid-19 is not a pandemic.
Many ‘experts’, appearing on YouTube videoclips which have thousands of followers and shares, doubt that there is a pandemic. According to them, for a disease to qualify as a pandemic, you need to go out of your house and see piles of dead bodies to left and right! According to others, 7% of the population has to die!
The definition of a pandemic as classified by the World Health Organisation (WHO) is that of a disease which spreads to the greater part of the world, travelling beyond national borders, happening at the same time and NOT seasonally, REGARDLESS  of seriousness,  causes or immunity. Covid-19 is, indeed, a pandemic since, within the first two months when it first made its appearance, it spread to 210 countries and independent areas throughout the world. The only complaint one can lay against the WHO is that it was late in declaring Covid-19 a pandemic.
                                                         

 Myth no. 2 : Covid-19 is just the simple flu.
According to scientific data, the Coronavirus is much more easily transmitted, more infectious and more fatal than  the flu. Even if it were a simple flu, it is a NEW flu, in a non-immune community, that would kill millions without protective measures being taken globally.
Was it for a flu that China, USA, UK and Spain built extra hospitals?
Was it for a flu that Italy took people off support systems to save the lives of younger patients?
 Was it for a flu that cemeteries filled up, that military vehicles went in convoy, full of the bodies of those who had died, and that huge plots were dug as mass graves for the dead?
According to the ‘flu’ theory, the number of deaths in the USA would peak at between 10,000 to 40,000 at most. Today, despite international measures of isolation and lockdown, that number has passed 72,000, with 61,000 deaths in the last month only!
In Europe, the annual number of deaths from the flu is around 40,000; this year the number of deaths from the Coronavirus only in Italy, Spain, France and GB in two months was more than 110,000!
At the global level, annual deaths from the flu are generally 110,000, while this year there are already 260,000 Covid-19 deaths. And that is despite an immediate lockdown of 1/3 of humanity, which is an unprecedented situation.  To appreciate the difference between the two, all one has to do is refer to the graphic representations of the deaths for every country, the expected and the actual, as a result of the flu and of the pandemic, the latter which suddenly surges ahead. And bear in mind, for the flu we have vaccines, we have medication (Tamiflu) and the greater part of the world population has immunity.
                                                          

Myth no. 3 : The Coronaovirus is the product of a Chinese laboratory to wage economic war on the USA and the West.
Data from general research, published in one of the most authoritative journals in the world, Nature, show that on the basis of the virus genome-sequencing, it is impossible to have been produced in the Wuhan laboratory in China. (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9).
From the history of the pandemic, it is clear that the Chinese people were found unprepared, and that is evident from the strict repressive measures that were used to control the spread of the viral epidemic in their country. What they can be judged fore, however, is that though they protected their own country, they did not inform the global community in good time, providing false data, even deceiving the WHO, and criminally leaving the rest of the world as easy prey for the virus. That, certainly, does not excuse Donald Trump and Boris Johnson from now blaming the Chinese people for everything, while they themselves neglected to take significant measures, even though they had all the necessary information. The result of their neglect was the massive spread of the disease, with a huge number of cases and deaths in their countries. 
Well, that’s quite enough to be going on with for now.
  Perhaps the next time you hear someone have a wee rant about the virus, you can access some of this reasoning to blow both them and their conspiracy theories out of the water! :)

Friday, 22 May 2020

Fake News and Other Fallacies, Thoughts, Whatever .....



 Pictures are often used to offer entertainment and make a comment at the same time - sometimes with deliciously stinging irony.  This was in a Facebook post after the storm Ciara hit the north. It claimed to depict ‘Glasgow minutes ago ‘- an orca splashing about by the roadside. Killer!
In such images, the humour lies in their absurdity – conditions clearly agin the truth.
                                              

In weather broadcasts, when the first snow of the season is being forecast, we often see scenes of drifting snow mounds, of snow ploughs clearing tracks.  One could easily believe that this is reality and it was – last winter!  So its reality is time-related – it is currently fake.                                              You get the weather real-feel when some poor rookie reporter has been sent out to stand in appalling weather conditions just to show ….. how appalling they are!
As I’ve said previously, our ‘truth’ is a fragile mosaic of a plethora of perceptions which we continually adapt to maintain some sense of cohesion. Issues are things we care about mind how we respond to them is related to our personal mosaic. One of my pet issues is the use of sloppy thinking: being ready to shout one’s mouth off or give a knee-jerk response without giving due consideration to the matter in hand.
                                                 

 One Facebook issue was about the film ’The Theory of Everything’ about the life of Stephen Hawking. Some people took issue (!) with the fact that Eddie Redmayne had the lead role, rather than a disabled actor. My bone of contention here is that do-good back-patters will happily throw a plethora of likes at such a post without thinking things through. In promoting this view, they’re placing the focus on Hawking’s physical hardship and not on his unique, brilliant mind. If they redress their focus but use their same pattern of ‘reasoning’ then casting for that protagonist should have been done by IQ rating – and I fear Equity would view that suggestion in a dim light!
 I have mentioned the phenomenon of polarization, where there is a tendency for people’s attitudes to move towards the extreme positions – ably abetted by, for instance, advertisers and politicians with their jingles and campaign slogans which ram home a position or an opinion by repetition to contrive loyalty or group affiliation.  Everyone remembers that ‘Things go better with Coca-Cola’ and it is a source of amusement to me that grown men at international football venues are actually chanting the ‘Hoover beats as it sweeps as it cleans’ jingle!
Polarization can lead to reductionism: if not white, then black.  Here in Greece, the issue of the naming of North Macedonia generated great polarization as did – and still does - the issue of Brexit where buzz words of questionable semantic value, such as fascist, traitor, nationalis, were bandied about regularly.
 Recently, during a chat with a neighbour, a plane passed high above, its jet engines leaving a clear trail in the blue sky. His immediate response was: ‘You see, they’re spraying us again!’ Any attempt on my part to explain that the phenomenon was caused by the hot, humid jet-engine fumes condensing in the high-altitude, low temperature atmosphere was rejected. No, the undisclosed ‘they’ were set on spraying us for mind control purposes. And this conspiracy theory has ‘them’ wastefully flying high, apparently missing direct target hit and squandering spray ….in order to avoid detection !?!
The above, then, are examples of knee-jerk responses or sloppy thinking. I contend that
inadequate information ………. gives rise to rumour
inadequate thinking processes………… generate conspiracy theories
inadequate vocabulary /powers of expression ……….resort to buzz words.
In this rapidly-changing world where screen has overtaken the page, and where the screen can easily deceive - what should we do to equip students with skills to help them discern reality, what is fact, what is the truth?
Here Finland offers us a really good model and for a good reason! She believes she has been on the front-line of an information war since 2014:  the target of fake news distributed by the Russian authorities – often of an anti-EU nature, or trying to influence debate on Finland’s NATO membership. And this ’war’ in itself is not fake news – it has been verified by Sergei Pugachev who once had Putin as his protégé and helped him acquire the presidency. Sergei asserts that Russia has billions of dollars at her disposal to strengthen her influence ‘to undermine and corrupt the institutions and democracies of the West’.

Meanwhile, back in Finland, dealing with this onslaught is seen as a civil defence issue and for their own security, everyone – from primary school pupils to politicians – is trained to detect suspect information. Always highly regarded for its education system, Finland runs far-reaching programs designed by multi-disciplinary specialists whereby thousands of civil servants, journalists, teachers and librarians are trained for awareness-raising.
In secondary schools there is a core, cross-subject component to develop multi-platform information literacy and strong critical thinking.
 For example, in Maths, students are shown how statistics can lie.
 In Art, they focus on how an image can manipulate meaning.
In Language, students look for information clarity and classification. They are taught to distinguish among three information categories:
 Misinformation: mistakes
Disinformation: deliberate falsehoods spread to deceive     and
Malinformation: gossip or even true information but spread to somehow cause harm.
In our world of fake news, this could be a very significant and necessary skill or awareness development area for all of us!